Assessing uncertainty in best management practice effectiveness under future climate scenarios          下载免费PDF全文

Sean A. Woznicki  A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2550-2566

Uncertainty of best management practice (BMP) performance in future climates is an important consideration for water resources managers. The objective of this study was to quantify the level of uncertainty in performance of seven agricultural BMPs due to climate change in reducing sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool coupled with mid‐21^st century climate data from the Community Climate System Model were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Tuttle Creek Lake Watershed of Kansas and Nebraska. Uncertainty level of each BMP was determined using Latin Hypercube Sampling, a constrained Monte Carlo sampling technique. Samples were taken from distributions of several variables (monthly precipitation, temperature, CO₂, and BMP implementation parameters). Cumulative distribution functions were constructed for each BMP, pollutant, and climate scenario combination. Results demonstrated that BMP performance uncertainty is amplified in the extreme climate scenario. Among BMPs, native grass replacement generally had higher uncertainty level but also had the greatest reductions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into mitigation strategies aiming to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comment on Garg et al., . ‘Up‐scaling potential impacts on water flows from agricultural water interventions: opportunities and trade‐offs in the Osman Sagar catchment,Musi sub‐basin,India’. Hydrological Processes 27: 3905–3921          下载免费PDF全文

Jetske A. Bouma  Trent W. Biggs  Laurens M. Bouwer 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3350-3351

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Three‐dimensional shakedown solutions for anisotropic cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads     

Juan Wang  Hai‐Sui Yu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(4):331-348

Previous work on three‐dimensional shakedown analysis of cohesive‐frictional materials under moving surface loads has been entirely for isotropic materials. As a result, the effects of anisotropy, both elastic and plastic, of soil and pavement materials are ignored. This paper will, for the first time, develop three‐dimensional shakedown solutions to allow for the variation of elastic and plastic material properties with direction. Melan's lower‐bound shakedown theorem is used to derive shakedown solutions. In particular, a generalised, anisotropic Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion and cross‐anisotropic elastic stress fields are utilised to develop anisotropic shakedown solutions. It is found that shakedown solutions for anisotropic materials are dominated by Young's modulus ratio for the cases of subsurface failure and by shear modulus ratio for the cases of surface failure. Plastic anisotropy is mainly controlled by material cohesion ratio, the rise of which increases the shakedown limit until a maximum value is reached. The anisotropic shakedown limit varies with frictional coefficient, and the peak value may not occur for the case of normal loading only. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

浅析如何在溶剂萃取机理研究中正确使用斜率法          下载免费PDF全文

高丹丹  李东东 《盐湖研究》2019,27(3):27-34

斜率法是萃取机理研究最为常用的方法之一。尽管其理论基础和使用方法非常简单,但该方法却常常被误用,导致其非但不能有效的确定萃取机理,反而产生了误导性结论。本文以t-BAMBP萃取碱金属离子(K~+、Rb~+、Cs~+)体系为例讨论了常见的错误用法以及造成这类情况的根源问题,之后对其他萃取体系中类似错误用法进行了简要评述,表明斜率法的错误使用主要源于对萃取反应方程式的错误假定及对工作方程推导过程中引入的近似处理理解不当。最后总结了在萃取机理研究中正确使用斜率法的几点注意事项。  相似文献   

导管架平台拆除过程稳定性及影响因素分析     

孙树峰  吕涛  陈国明  孙久洋  宋玉东  何睿 《海洋工程》2020,38(1):140-146

现有服役海洋平台正逐步走向老龄化,海洋平台拆除成为海洋工程新的经济增长点。针对达到服役年限的导管架平台,基于数值分析方法模拟拆除过程,开展平台在不同拆除阶段和环境载荷等参数下的稳定性及影响规律研究。基于钢结构整体稳定性理论,以导管架平台拆除过程中顶点位移为参考,定义导管架平台拆除作业稳定性指标,提出拆除作业阶段划分方法,通过分析导管架平台在不同影响因素作用下拆除过程稳定性响应,给出拆除作业建议。选取我国南海某4裙12腿进行实例分析,结果表明:主桩腿对导管架平台起决定性承载作用,拆除部分主桩腿后需要引入外部支撑力,以保证拆除作业安全进行;拆除构件越多,来浪方向和环境载荷大小对平台影响越加显著。研究结果可为导管架平台拆除作业提供参考。  相似文献   

脚靴式海上升压站灌浆连接段强度分析研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王永发  孙震洲  汤群益  陈杰峰 《海洋工程》2020,38(5):107-115

与国内已建成的海上升压站相比，脚靴式海上升压站导管架对桩和套筒间的灌浆连接强度要求更高，完全套用单桩风电结构的分析方法会使结构设计不准确。由于桩和套筒之间设置有剪力键，当特殊情况时还需增加灌浆连接增强钢筋，在地震及撞船作用下容易导致灌浆接触界面分离等破坏，当前尚未有针对此类情况系统的灌浆连接强度校核方法。以某脚靴式海上升压站为例，分析其在在位、撞船、地震、疲劳等多个主控工况下灌浆连接、剪力键及增强钢筋的强度及稳定性，结果表明该海上升压站灌浆连接段满足设计要求，并研究了各参数对灌浆连接段强度的敏感程度，为今后脚靴式海上升压站各主控工况下的灌浆连接段强度分析、优化设计提供参考与借鉴。  相似文献   

日照海岸带沙滩侵蚀现状及沉积物粒度特征分析     

种衍飞  郝义 《海洋地质前沿》2020,36(1):19-29

通过对日照市海岸带2个重点沙滩的现场调查和沉积物粒度计算,综合分析了沙滩的侵蚀现状和粒度参数特征。海滨国家森林公园沙滩北部和南部处于侵蚀状态,中部为缓慢淤积状态;万平口海水浴场沙滩北部、中部总体呈侵蚀趋势,南部为淤积状态。海滨国家森林公园沙滩的平均粒径总体要小于万平口海水浴场沙滩,这与两沙滩的坡度不同有关,平均粒径从滩肩到低潮线逐渐变小。海滨国家森林公园沙滩的分选性要好于万平口海水浴场沙滩,分选系数具有由陆向海、由北向南逐渐变小的趋势。沙滩的滩肩和滩面处频率曲线主要为双峰,峰态平坦,物质来源复杂,低潮线处频率曲线主要为单峰,峰态尖锐,物质来源单一。  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

从水文学产汇流角度分析碱坪沟“8·13”泥石流特征     

宋国虎  李强  陈容  王灿  向波 《四川地质学报》2020,40(1):93-97

本研究以四川省都江堰市龙池镇碱坪沟泥石流流域对象,基于HEC-HMS流域分布式水文模型,利用RS和GIS技术提取流域产汇流参数,模拟分析碱坪沟8·13泥石流的暴雨汇流过程,结合流域内土地利用类型分布,模拟降雨-径流关系,并综合考虑泥石流的相关特征参数,利用情景分析法探讨泥石流流域内的土地利用类型变化对泥石流汇流过程的影响关系。  相似文献   

滇西陇川断陷盆地地热水化学特征及循环过程     

黄琴辉  张华  康晓波  王波  刘海峰  柴金龙  黄钊  王燕 《中国岩溶》2020,39(6):793-801

通过对陇川盆地开展地热地质调查，查清其地热资源分布:盆地内共出露地热点11处，热储结构类型为带状型和层状型，盆地中部为层状型，两侧盆地边缘为带状型，其中北西部受断裂控制明显，南东部受节理裂隙控制明显。其储热层为变质岩及新近系芒棒组的花岗质砂砾岩、细砂岩；地热水受大气降水影响明显，循环深度都在1 600 m以上，大部分在1 800~2 400 m之间，主要来源于深部热源，通过断裂、裂隙及砂砾石孔隙作为导水、储水上涌通道，接收来自山区补给的地下水混合出露于地表，补给距离在1.5 km以上，如南宛河温泉温度最高，地下水循环深度最深，补给距离最远，达10 km；盆地北东和西部水温高，循环深度深。   相似文献